Elon Musk’s ambitious rebranding of Twitter to X was initially hailed as a transformative moment for the platform. Yet, recent data paints a very different picture. Despite Musk’s claims that X is setting new usage records, third-party reports reveal a significant decline in user numbers in key markets like the U.S. and U.K. Musk’s controversial statements and divisive political stances may have exacerbated this drop, leading to a notable shift in user behavior and market trends.

The Shrinking User Base in Key Markets

New insights from analytics platforms such as Similarweb show a steep decline in active users on X in both the U.S. and U.K. In the U.K., active daily users dropped from 8 million a year ago to around 5.6 million today—a loss of over 30% in a relatively short span. This dramatic decline coincides with Musk’s contentious remarks about race-related events in the U.K., such as his tweet suggesting that a civil war in the country was inevitable. Similar patterns are observable in the U.S., where X’s active user base has declined by roughly a fifth in the same period.

X’s decline is not limited to these two regions. The platform continues to lose users in the European Union (EU) as well, with the latest EU reporting indicating a 5% reduction in active users. This downward trajectory is hard to reconcile with Musk’s repeated assertions of growth, particularly when the app remains banned in significant markets like Brazil, which could account for an additional 20 million users. While there are talks that this ban might soon be lifted, X’s user attrition in other regions suggests that even this potential return might not offset the overall losses.

Selective Metrics and Misleading Claims

Musk’s narrative around X’s growth appears to rely heavily on selective metrics and reporting. For instance, Musk has often touted X’s status as the “number one news app” in various regions. However, this claim is misleading. In 2016, Twitter reclassified itself from a social media app to a news app, meaning that X’s current ranking as the top news app is not a new development. The platform’s classification change allowed it to rank ahead of traditional news apps, but this does not reflect a recent surge in popularity.

Musk also introduced a new metric, “user seconds,” as a means to showcase X’s engagement. While this may sound impressive, the metric’s validity is questionable. X appears to be selectively reporting this data based on the time frame after the platform’s rebranding, rather than considering Twitter’s historical data. Consequently, the figures Musk presents do not align with third-party analysis, which consistently shows X losing users. Additionally, X’s revenue has also been reported to be in decline, further undercutting claims of the platform’s success.

The Role of AI and New Features

X has also introduced several new features aimed at boosting engagement, including the Grok AI chatbot. However, these additions have done little to curb the overall decline in user numbers. While AI-powered tools have become essential components of many social media platforms, X’s reliance on features like chatbots hasn’t been sufficient to reverse the platform’s downward trend. It seems that these innovations have failed to capture the interest of X’s shrinking user base, leaving the platform vulnerable to further decline.

The Political Stakes and the Future of X

Much of X’s future seems to be tied to the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Musk has openly aligned himself with Donald Trump and, to a degree, banked on a Trump victory to secure the future of his platform. Musk’s influence over the platform could be leveraged for political gains, especially in areas where his other ventures, such as SpaceX, are heavily regulated by government policies. A Trump win could bring regulatory shifts that would benefit Musk’s business interests, including X. However, a loss could leave X without the political leverage Musk hopes to gain, further diminishing its value.

Should Trump lose, Musk’s political gamble may backfire, forcing him to reconsider the platform’s long-term viability. Some speculate that, under these circumstances, Musk could ultimately shut down X or sell it off, especially if the platform’s performance continues to decline. This scenario underscores the high stakes involved in Musk’s venture, where success or failure could hinge not just on the platform’s performance but on external political factors.

Conclusion

X, once seen as a potential disruptor in the social media landscape, is now facing a critical juncture. User numbers are falling across major markets like the U.S. and U.K., while attempts to introduce AI-driven features have not stemmed the tide. Musk’s selective reporting of data and metrics raises questions about the platform’s actual performance. Meanwhile, the upcoming U.S. election could prove to be a pivotal moment for X’s future, with Musk’s alignment with Trump placing significant bets on political outcomes. Whether X can reverse its fortunes remains to be seen, but the current trajectory suggests that Musk’s grand experiment may face serious challenges in the months to come.