Mapping Twitter’s current process structure can be challenging because Chief Twit Elon Musk is accustomed to operating under his own rules. After all, there aren’t many factors to take into account that would require you to consult anyone before announcing future directions if you run your own platform. While it might have worked in certain areas, Musk’s somewhat rash decision-making has put Twitter in some tough spots, especially when it comes to delivering what he promised. 

Twitter Ad Oblivion

Yesterday, amid discussions about the resumption of its $8 verification program, Musk responded to a Tweet, noting that Twitter Blue would ‘half the number of ads…’. So, it seems that Musk and Twitter are working towards a version of Blue with around 50% fewer total ads. While it’s not yet here, it’s coming. Musk went on to go further with an ad-free subscription model supposedly slated for next year. 

That could be good; some people can’t stand ads and will pay to have them removed. YouTube Premium is a good example, which costs, in comparison, $11.99 per month and has 50 million subscribers – 2% of YouTube’s total active user count. However, it could be an economic challenge and be largely dependent on how many people sign up for Twitter’s $8 verification plan. If Twitter wants to make money, then it needs to either serve ads or get a lot of people to sign up for its new subscription offers.

Putting this into perspective, Elon stated that the target for subscription revenue is, at this stage, half of Twitter’s revenue intake. Going with what Twitter generated in Q2 this year, it means that Twitter mostly generated around $1.18 billion over the last three months. Elon is keen on making close to $200 million from subscriptions alone, hoping to reduce the app’s reliance on advertisers. Based on $8 subscription costs, that would require around 24.6 million paying subscribers, paying $8 via the web or $11 on iOS.

At most, this might lead to a rather complicated situation where Twitter’s theoretical 24 million users are seeing half the ads, meaning that non-paying users either have to see more ads or Twitter will have to further increase the price of Blue. Twitter is being careful not to tip the scales, which is why it’s not rolling this out yet at launch. Before even considering this factor, Twitter must first reach its 20+ million sub-threshold, lest it dilute the benefits of revenue. A ‘+’ version of Twitter Blue, one with no ads whatsoever, would either be very pricey or require millions more to sign up for its current subscription offer, which is Musk’s optimistic aim. 

The Wrap

Elon’s hope is that enough people will sign up to pay $8 a month and use the offer as a means to combat bots. But this, again, requires huge takeup, way more than any that we’ve already seen on any social platform thus far. It’s a good promise, but it’s not one that you should bank on completely. Elon himself seems to bank on his influence and passion, in that his pious supporters would give him the numbers that he needs to reach his business targets. There are a lot of people who actually want to back Elon and his dream of making Twitter the home of free speech, so it’s likely that he’ll eventually achieve what he set out to do. 

Sources 

https://bit.ly/3Ygcd5Y